April 9, 2025: The White House has spent four days insisting the tariffs are here to stay. The president himself posted that morning: “BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well.” His trade advisor is on television, calling market panic “no big deal.” There will be no pause. The message is unambiguous. At 1:00 pm, someone buys 5,105 call options on SPY—the fund that tracks the S&P 500. The position costs $2.14 million. It will be worthless by the end of the day unless the market surges dramatically. It is a bad bet. At 1:18 pm, Trump posts on Truth Social. The tariffs are paused. The market
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